Steven Stellman - Validation and calibration of a model used to reconstruct historical exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons for use in epidemiologic studies

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      Beyea, J., Hatch, M., Stellman, S. D., Santella, R. M.,   Teitelbaum, S. L., Prokopczyk, B., Camann, D., Gammon, M. D.   114 (7) 1053-8-

      Abstract: OBJECTIVES: We previously developed a   historical reconstruction model to estimate exposure to airborne   polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from traffic back to 1960   for use in case-control studies of breast cancer risk. Here we   report the results of four exercises to validate and calibrate   the model. METHODS: Model predictions of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP)   concentration in soil and carpet dust were tested against   measurements collected at subjects' homes at interview. In   addition, predictions of air intake of BaP were compared with   blood PAH-DNA adducts. These same soil, carpet, and blood   measurements were used for model optimization. In a separate test   of the meteorological dispersion part of the model, predictions   of hourly concentrations of carbon monoxide from traffic were   compared with data collected at a U.S. Environmental Protection   Agency monitoring station. RESULTS: The data for soil, PAH-DNA   adducts, and carbon monoxide concentrations were all consistent   with model predictions. The carpet dust data were inconsistent,   suggesting possible spatial confounding with PAH-containing   contamination tracked in from outdoors or unmodeled cooking   sources. BaP was found proportional to other PAHs in our soil and   dust data, making it reasonable to use BaP historical data as a   surrogate for other PAHs. Road intersections contributed 40-80%   of both total emissions and average exposures, suggesting that   the repertoire of simple markers of exposure, such as traffic   counts and/or distance to nearest road, needs to be expanded to   include distance to nearest intersection.

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